What is the future development trend of the doors and windows industry?

1
Renovation of old houses: Trillion-level potential to be activated
1 Benefit factors:
For a long time, the prosperity of the doors and windows industry mainly benefited from two major factors: First, the increase in urbanization rate, with hundreds of millions of people moving into cities, contributed to the huge demand for decoration. According to data from the Seven Census, my country's urbanization rate has increased from less than 50% in 2010 to 63.89% in 2020, which has not only driven the prosperity of real estate, but also contributed to the hot sales of doors and windows. Second, new commercial housing has continued to grow at a high rate for many years. According to data from the Sixth and Seventh Censuses, the total housing stock for urban households in 2010 was 17.9 billion square meters. By 2020, it had grown to 29.46 billion square meters, equivalent to a net increase of 11.56 billion square meters in 10 years.
Behind the above two types of data, both mean a very considerable demand for doors and windows, and also indicate that the stock of old houses built 10 or even 20 years ago has reached a huge scale. Some of the old houses have doors and windows with low energy-saving standards, aging and disrepair, poor sound insulation and thermal insulation performance, and potential safety hazards from falling, and are entering a vigorous stage of renovation.
2 Factual evidence:
As time goes by, more old houses will be renovated and will enter the demand release stage, forming a new growth engine for the doors and windows industry. Behind this judgment, in addition to the above data support, there is more evidence:
First, there are nearly 160,000 old residential areas in my country before 2000, involving more than 42 million residents and a construction area of about 4 billion square meters. At the same time, our country will complete these old residential areas during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. The renovation of old residential areas may trigger the need for replacement of doors and windows. Hao Jiping, a professor at Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology and president of the China Construction Metal Structure Association, once suggested that subsidies for doors and windows should be provided when promoting the renovation of old urban residential buildings. If the policy can be implemented, it will be a great benefit to the doors and windows industry.
Second, based on market data, among the customers of many home building materials brands and dealers, existing housing stock, including old communities, accounts for more than 70%.
Analysis from Jianrong Investment shows that between 2021 and 2030, the compound growth rate of demand for renovation of existing housing will be 6.72%.
At the same time, the total number of existing housing units in need of renovation will reach 99.32 million units. Among them, the replacement of doors and windows will maintain a certain proportion. If calculated at 10,000 yuan per household, it can also bring a demand scale of nearly one trillion yuan. In fact, when some well-known brands promote whole-house door and window packages, the total price is set at around 19,800 yuan.
3 Market opportunities:
Affected by factors such as the upgrade of residential consumption and the expansion of the base of middle- and high-income groups, door and window brands with strong influence will win the favor of customers who renovate old houses.
Products, solutions and services that meet the needs of old house renovation are likely to seize the opportunity to the greatest extent possible.
In this regard, there are many door and window companies that have started renovating old houses, and their methods are concentrated in three types:
The first is to launch exclusive products and solutions for the renovation of old houses, such as special renovation packages.
The second is to open stores in communities where old houses are densely distributed to strengthen market penetration.
The third is a targeted marketing strategy for old house renovation.
2
Hardcover package: still the main battlefield
In the past few years, the delivery of finely decorated houses has driven the continued growth of a number of door and window brands and reaped development dividends. Especially after the fully-decorated housing policy was fully implemented, the delivery volume of fully decorated projects increased from hundreds of thousands to 3.255 million units in 2020. Doors and windows are mainstream configuration components, and some brands focusing on real estate engineering channels have benefited greatly.
According to Youcai's data, some system window brands have been shortlisted in the list of top 500 preferred suppliers of real estate development companies, including Schüco, Weike Kaipu, Xingfa, Weiye, Bekluo, Aruke, and Fen'an , Hydro, Yiosi, Famien, etc. In the subcategory of fireproof windows, brands such as King Kong, Zhongnan, Weilong, Maxim's, and Dongcheng have appeared.
Being included in the purchase list of the top 500 real estate companies as an independent category reflects to a certain extent that the purchase volume of fine decoration matching has reached a large scale and the rate of fine decoration matching has risen to a high level.
According to statistics from Aoweiyun.com, 3.255 million new units of fine decoration were launched in 2020, reaching a peak. There will be a certain degree of decline in 2021, falling to 2.861 million units.
Based on the situation in 2022, the scale of fine decoration will be 705,200 units, a year-on-year decrease of 48.9%. However, the market is improving and may improve in the second half of the year. The entire scale of fine decoration is expected to remain at around 2.2 million units. Judging from the development trend, fine decoration is still the focus. The allocation rate of doors and windows is over 90%, and the total volume is extremely considerable. It will still play the role of the core channel in the future.

3
Improved decoration: first-line brands will benefit from it
There are two main sources of improvement decoration:
The first is the renovation and decoration of existing houses, especially after the transaction of second-hand houses, improvement decoration is more common.
The other is the renovation and upgrading of finely decorated houses, that is, new renovations of new houses delivered with fine decoration.
The characteristics of the two needs are relatively obvious, which are reflected in the emphasis on brand, preference for good-looking design, emphasis on product quality and function, and high customer value; willingness to accept one-stop solutions for whole-house doors and windows; emphasis on service quality, such as delivery Installation, after-sales, etc.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the national second-hand housing transaction volume in 2020 reached 4.2 million units, and the number of transactions in 2021 was approximately 3.93 million units. Among them, the demand for improved decoration has been the cornerstone of the door and window industry's expansion of incremental space. Undoubtedly, winning the recognition of this customer group is crucial to the success of door and window companies.
It is understood that some door and window brands have started from the perspectives of products, channel layout, and services, proposing aesthetic concepts, creating scene plans, enhancing product functions, improving service capabilities, and launching an offensive in the improved decoration market.
The door and window industry is entering a critical period of transformation and upgrading. The release of the three major needs of renovation of old houses, fine decoration and improved decoration will bring imaginative growth to the door and window market. It is both an opportunity and a challenge. If the current main players in doors and windows want to be successful in the new era, they need to identify the track where they can exert their strength, start over, rise to the occasion, and go all out.
